Anticipation is at an all-time high for the much-awaited clash between top seed Jannik Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz, as they prepare to battle for the French Open men’s title this Sunday in Paris. Together, they have claimed the last five major championships, but this final marks their first showdown on such a high-stakes stage. So far, both have maintained perfect records in their respective finals: Alcaraz at 4-0 and Sinner at 3-0.
As the countdown begins, our panel of experts shares insights on how each contender could secure victory.
Strategies for Alcaraz to Overcome Sinner
Rennae Stubbs: Alcaraz should leverage his remarkable speed and agility, transitioning defense into attack and forcing Sinner to play under pressure. Utilizing a mix of shots, especially drop shots, will be key to unsettling Sinner in the court’s less familiar zones, along with asserting himself at the net.
Simon Cambers: He needs to replicate his success from their recent encounters by playing smart and exploiting his strengths. Alcaraz has triumphed in two out of three matches on clay, including a victory in last year’s semifinals and more recently in Rome. His ability to maneuver opponents and get his forehand firing will be crucial on the clay surface.
The match will likely feature extended rallies, where Alcaraz’s superior overall game—including drop shots, sharp angles, and net approaches—could give him a significant advantage. He must serve better than he did in the semifinals against Musetti and aim to make the contest physically demanding, as few can match Alcaraz’s relentless determination on clay.
D’Arcy Maine: Alcaraz enters the final with numerous advantages. As the defending champion and with a track record of victories against Sinner, he’s brimming with confidence. He recently called his 7-6 (5), 6-1 triumph at the Italian Open “one of his best performances,” showcasing his ability to maintain focus throughout the match.
He’ll aim to replicate this approach by using his variety and endurance, striking at the right moments, and varying the pace of the game. Though Sinner has returned strong post-suspension, he hasn’t faced matches extending beyond three sets since the Australian Open, making a drawn-out match likely favor Alcaraz.
Bill Connelly: Alcaraz should continue to play aggressively. He’s won four consecutive matches against Sinner, and his success hinges on his ability to hit high-percentage winners. Opponents have only succeeded in hitting winners against Sinner 15% of the time during this tournament. In contrast, Alcaraz’s past meetings indicate a consistent winner’s rate of around 22%. Winning short points will be vital for both players.
How Sinner Can Overcome Alcaraz
Stubbs: Sinner must use his raw power to challenge Alcaraz’s forehand and prevent him from dictating the pace of play. Keeping the ball deep and securing a high first-serve percentage are essential.
Cambers: Sinner has powered through to the final without dropping a set, exuding an aura of invincibility with 20 consecutive Grand Slam match victories. However, he must deliver a stellar serving performance to counter Alcaraz, who thrives on short returns.
Sinner’s impressive ball speed can penetrate Alcaraz’s defenses, but patience will be essential as Alcaraz returns many more balls compared to Sinner’s other opponents. Sinner is likely to target Alcaraz’s backhand and wait for an opportunity to strike.
Maine: Sinner’s impressive performance in the tournament underscores why he hasn’t lost a set. His composure will be vital, especially during critical moments. If Alcaraz exhibits any signs of vulnerability, Sinner needs to seize that opportunity and counteract Alcaraz’s swift returns.
Strong serving will be essential to thwart Alcaraz from obtaining easy points. Having just returned from a three-month absence, Sinner has only improved in each match. It’s anyone’s guess how much better he will perform on the grand stage this Sunday.
Connelly: Sinner’s success will hinge on landing his first serve, which he managed to escape with against Djokovic. Poor first-serve percentages against Alcaraz have historically led to unfavorable outcomes, with Sinner being 0-5 when failing to win over 37% of Alcaraz’s service points. He needs to flip that stat to find success.
Predictions for the Final Outcome
Stubbs: I believe Sinner will emerge victorious. He is playing at an outstanding level and has a remarkable Grand Slam track record. This could be his moment to defeat Alcaraz in a crucial match for the first time. Sinner will win in four sets.
Cambers: With Alcaraz’s 4-0 Grand Slam final record and Sinner’s at 3-0, something will have to give. Both players usually elevate each other’s performance, and this match promises to deliver thrilling tennis. Given the advantages on clay, I see Alcaraz edging out Sinner, potentially in four or five sets.
Maine: I’m backing Alcaraz to take it in four sets. His remarkable clay season gives him an edge, and he’s clearly got the blueprint to defeat Sinner on this surface. Curiously, he would match Rafael Nadal’s age to the day when winning his fifth major title—perhaps a sign of destiny?
Connelly: I’m leaning towards Sinner, who is arguably the best player currently. Watching Djokovic struggle against him was striking. While Alcaraz may have an edge on clay, past matches reveal just how closely matched they are. It feels like a coin toss, and if everyone else is choosing tails, I’m going with heads!