By Louis Jacobson | PolitiFact
Published on June 11, 2025
In a recent warning, US President Donald Trump has cautioned that Americans could face significantly higher taxes if Congress fails to approve his proposed tax and spending legislation. Referring to the initiative as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," Trump claimed in a Truth Social post on June 5 that the rejection of this bill would result in a staggering 68% tax hike.
This assertion was echoed in his remarks to reporters on May 25 and a news conference on May 30. However, independent experts have determined that Trump’s prediction vastly overstates the potential tax increase should the 2017 tax cuts expire later this year; they estimate the actual hike would be approximately 7.5%, or nearly ten times less than Trump’s claim.
The proposed budgetary changes have sparked a divide between Trump and influential ally Elon Musk, who has publicly criticized the plan as a "disgusting abomination." The White House has yet to respond to requests for comment regarding these statements.
Expected Tax Increases
While Republican representatives are largely advocating for the full extension of the 2017 tax law, Democrats—including the anticipated 2024 presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris—are backing a plan to extend reduced rates only for households earning up to $400,000 annually.
If the 2017 tax provisions are allowed to lapse, it is projected that an average tax increase of 7.5% will occur, according to the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan research organization. This estimate significantly diverges from Trump’s claims, revealing no income group, be it lower or higher earners, facing a 68% increase in tax liability.
For instance, individuals earning up to $34,600 could encounter nearly a 12% rise, while those making $67,000 or more would see an increase ranging between 7% and 8%.
Impacts Across Income Levels
While taxes are expected to rise for all income brackets if the legislation fails, projections indicate these increases will not come close to the alarming 68% figure suggested by Trump. The Tax Foundation has not formalized an estimate, but it has indicated similar forecasts to those of the Tax Policy Center.
Experts from the Tax Policy Center estimate that over 62% of taxpayers could see their taxes increase if the 2017 legislation is not renewed. However, this does not imply that the average taxpayer will face a hike exceeding 60% compared to their prior payments.
Economic Implications
The Republican tax bill primarily benefits higher-income earners, while providing minor relief for lower and middle-income families. Specifically, taxpayers earning $34,600 or less might experience a mere 0.6% rise in their after-tax income if the bill passes, while those earning $67,000 and above could see a 2.8% increase. This trend is even more pronounced among the top earners.
A February analysis from the Tax Foundation suggested that although all income levels would benefit from the renewal of the 2017 tax law, the greatest gains would primarily favor the wealthiest segments of the population.
Conclusion
Trump’s claim that the failure of his "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill would lead to a 68% tax increase is misleading. Independent assessments indicate that while tax increases are indeed on the horizon if the 2017 cuts expire, they will be substantially smaller than what he has stated.
The Tax Policy Center estimates a realistic tax increase of around 7.5%, a view broadly supported by the Tax Foundation. Thus, we categorize Trump’s statement as false.