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Michael Voepel
The upcoming Commissioner’s Cup final on Tuesday night promises to showcase contrasting narratives: On one hand, the Minnesota Lynx, representing the Western Conference, have distinguished themselves as the most stable team throughout the current WNBA season. Conversely, the Indiana Fever, representing the Eastern Conference, have experienced a tumultuous journey, mirroring the ups and downs faced by numerous teams across the league.
“Perfection was never on the table for us this season,” said Indiana guard Caitlin Clark following a recent match. “There will always be highs and lows. These experiences are what we’ll reflect on later. Every team faces adversity, but I commend our squad for uniting and recognizing that what we have in our locker room is all we need to secure victories. I’m really proud of everyone on this team every day.”
However, Clark’s participation in the Tuesday night final (8 ET, Prime) remains uncertain, as she has already missed seven games due to a quad injury and, more recently, a groin issue.
This week, both Clark and Minnesota forward Napheesa Collier were revealed as the two leading vote recipients in the fan poll for the upcoming All-Star Game on July 19. While the Lynx currently lead the standings at 14-2 and are the reigning Commissioner’s Cup champions, the Fever with a record of 8-8 will be making their first appearance in the Cup final since the inception of the league’s in-season competition in 2021.
Let’s consider some critical factors that could influence the outcome of the Cup championship.
Will Both Teams Be at Full Strength?
If both Clark and Collier take to the court on Tuesday, it will undoubtedly enhance the excitement of this showdown.
Clark spent part of her team’s practice on Sunday working on offensive techniques without contact, according to coach Stephanie White.
“I’m going to treat each day as it comes,” Clark shared. “I’m putting in the effort to ensure I’m ready for the next game, and that’s always my aim.”
Meanwhile, Collier has shown strong form in her last two games after returning from a back injury. Currently, she leads the league in scoring at 24.5 points per game and was named MVP of last year’s Commissioner’s Cup final, where the Lynx narrowly defeated the New York Liberty 94-89.
However, Lynx reserve guard Karlie Samuelson exited Sunday’s commanding 102-63 win against Connecticut due to a foot injury, putting her status for Tuesday in doubt. Additionally, Indiana reserve forward Damiris Dantas is away from the team as she participates in the AmeriCup tournament in Chile.
Experience and Home-Court Advantage
Last season’s Cup final was contested between the Lynx and Liberty in front of a large audience at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York, as Barclays Center was occupied for the NBA Draft. The upcoming game, however, will unfold at Minnesota’s Target Center, a storied venue known for hosting numerous WNBA Finals and the All-Star Game.
“It’s going to have the intensity of a playoff match,” Collier stated. “Our fans always rally behind us, especially in this setting. It’s going to be electrifying.”
Clark labeled the contest as “a tremendous opportunity.”
“They have an incredible fanbase and environment. They’re a team brimming with experience, having played in the Finals and clinching last year’s Commissioner’s Cup,” Clark emphasized. “Player availability will be crucial, but we’re eager to step onto the court and aim for a victory.”
The Three-Point Showdown
Minnesota stands as the top three-point shooting team in the WNBA, boasting a success rate of 36.3%. Indiana trails behind at sixth place with a rate of 34.2%. Both teams excel defensively from beyond the arc: the Fever rank first, limiting opponents to just 27.5%, while the Lynx follow closely at second with a 29.1% success rate allowed.
Despite Clark’s struggles with three-point shooting before her injury (shooting only 1-of-23 in her last three games), her presence stretches defenses thin. If she is unavailable, the Fever still have formidable three-point shooters in Kelsey Mitchell, Lexie Hull, Sophie Cunningham, Sydney Colson, and Aari McDonald. Mitchell recently recorded a season-high 32 points against Dallas, leading the Fever with 35 three-pointers, while Hull excels with a 3-point shooting rate of 50% (22-of-44).
For Minnesota, Kayla McBride is the standout three-point shooter, sinking 34 shots at a 41% clip. The Lynx’s starting lineup also sees Collier, Courtney Williams, Bridget Carleton, and Alanna Smith each contributing at least 19 three-pointers this season.
The three-point game could level the playing field, but a clear advantage for either side could heavily sway the match’s outcome.
Setting the Game’s Tempo
The Fever, with Clark’s fast-paced style, aim to run the floor as quickly as possible. Yet, they haven’t capitalized on their transition game as much as intended, currently ranked 11th in the league with an average of 10.1 fast-break points per game. Clark’s absence from seven games has impacted this aspect, although McDonald, recently signed for the full season after earning a contract on an injury hardship basis, could bring her speed and willingness to push the tempo.
In contrast, the Lynx have excelled on fast breaks, averaging 12.6 points (3rd in the WNBA) thanks to their impressive ball-sharing. However, the Fever need to be cautious with the ball; they average 14.8 turnovers, while Minnesota thrives off those mistakes, leading the league with 18.3 points scored from turnovers, with Indiana ranking sixth at 16.2.
Defensive Performance: The Key for the Fever
The Lynx’s impressive consistency can be attributed to their strong and reliable defensive performance. Currently, they allow the fewest points in the league at 74.1, hold a defensive rating of 93.9, and are second in terms of opposing field goal percentage at 40.1%.
In contrast, the Fever’s defense has been less effective, yielding an average of 80.1 points and 42.9% shooting against them, with a defensive rating of 100.2. However, if Indiana can muster a credible defensive effort and execute offensively, they have a promising chance to upset the odds.
Forward Aliyah Boston has been the defensive pillar for the Fever, complemented by Hull’s relentless energy. With players like McDonald, Mitchell, and Colson also excelling in on-ball defense, the Fever stand a chance. Boston has been productive offensively too, averaging 21.4 points over Indiana’s last five games, and she will be integral in trying to limit Collier’s impact inside the paint.