Decoding Israel’s Bold Move Against Iran: Strategic Implications Amid Rising Tensions in the Middle East

Israel has initiated its anticipated military operations against Iran, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating that these actions will persist “for as long as necessary.” The operations commenced early on a Friday morning and appear to be meticulously orchestrated, targeting both military and governmental sites, resulting in the deaths of several high-ranking military officials, including Hossein Salami, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Mohammad Bagheri, head of Iran’s armed forces. Among the casualties are also notable Iranian nuclear scientists.

These strikes occur amidst ongoing negotiations involving the United States, Israel’s primary ally, regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions, leading many to speculate that Israel’s actions are strategic moves designed to increase pressure on Tehran.

Support from the United States remains crucial for Israel. Beyond supplying military resources, the U.S. serves as a key safeguard against international criticism within the United Nations, regularly employing its veto power in the Security Council to block measures condemning Israel despite ongoing allegations of international law violations.

Launching an offensive against Iran, a formidable regional power with widespread alliances throughout the Middle East, presents significant risks for Israel and for the U.S., which maintains troops in the area. The underlying question is: Why now? What compels Israel to engage in such high-stakes military action?

Does Iran pose an immediate nuclear threat to Israel?

Israel’s military prowess in the Middle East is augmented not only by its conventional forces and U.S. backing but also by its elusive nuclear arsenal, which provides a strategic edge no neighboring nation possesses. Although Israel has never openly acknowledged its nuclear capabilities, the possibility of Iran acquiring such weapons is perceived as crossing a critical line. Netanyahu has long maintained that Iran is on the cusp of developing nuclear capabilities, in contrast to Tehran’s claims that its nuclear activities are purely peaceful.

To justify the recent military actions, Netanyahu asserted that Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a matter of months. An Israeli military source reportedly indicated that Iran has sufficient fissile material for as many as 15 nuclear devices in a very short timeframe.

What do international observers say about Iran’s nuclear capacity?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently indicated that Iran had not complied with its commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a claim Iran denied. While the IAEA has pointed to a history of inadequate cooperation from Iran, it has not confirmed the development of nuclear weapons.

As part of a 2015 agreement with the U.S., several Western nations, and others, Iran consented to restrict its nuclear program and allow regular inspections by the IAEA in exchange for relief from sanctions. However, the U.S. exited the agreement in 2018 under President Trump, reinstating sanctions. Notably, U.S. intelligence has not determined that Iran is nearing nuclear weapons capability, with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard suggesting that Iran is not in the process of building nuclear arms.

What are the motives for Israel’s aggression towards Iran?

Netanyahu has characterized Iran as “the head of the octopus,” asserting that it orchestrates a network of anti-Israeli groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Following the war in Gaza that commenced in October 2023, Israel has successfully diminished the operational capacities of both Hamas and Hezbollah, effectively targeting their leadership.

The absence of significant retaliation after recent strikes has emboldened certain factions in Israel, leading them to believe there is a unique opportunity to further neutralize threats across the region, including against Iran—a prospect some even perceive as a chance for regime change, though that would likely require extended military engagement, which Israel may not be equipped to sustain.

Despite no direct confrontations with Iran or its allies since the previous year, the current strikes seem to have reignited a conflict timeline that many believed was dormant.

Is domestic politics influencing Israel’s strikes on Iran?

Critics within Israel argue that Netanyahu is using military decisions, particularly in Gaza where tens of thousands have died, as a means to bolster his political standing. His coalition’s survival amidst internal tensions may hinge on conflict, making engagement with Iran and in Gaza a risky but politically expedient choice for him, especially with looming corruption charges against him.

Analyst Ori Goldberg noted, “For Netanyahu, the distinction between domestic and foreign politics is blurred.” Many argue there wasn’t an immediate threat to Israel, asserting that the IAEA’s reports do not validate a sense of imminent danger.

Notably, even opposition leaders have rallied behind Netanyahu in the aftermath of the strikes, signaling a complex political landscape where military action garners temporary unity amidst domestic discord.

Have Israel’s strikes on Iran violated international law?

Many legal scholars argue that Israel may be in breach of international laws, particularly in light of its previous military actions in Gaza. Legal expert Michael Becker from Trinity College in Dublin commented that Israel’s use of force against Iran does not align with the self-defense rights outlined in the UN Charter, as there was no imminent armed threat from Iran. He emphasized that Israel cannot justify its military actions solely based on assumptions related to Tehran’s potential future nuclear capabilities, especially given ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.