On Tuesday, the appointed governor of Russia’s occupied Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine declared that the area had been fully captured, marking it as the first of the four annexed eastern regions to come under complete Russian control. “Just a couple of days ago, I got a report indicating that the territory of the Luhansk People’s Republic has been completely liberated,” Leonid Pasechnik announced on Russia’s Channel One.
However, this claim faced skepticism. Russian military correspondents indicated that two villages were still under Ukrainian control and recalled that Luhansk had been proclaimed conquered previously in 2022, only to be partially regained after a Ukrainian counteroffensive in September of that year.
Despite these disagreements, it is clear that Russian forces have steadily approached securing the entire Luhansk territory over the past 33 months, representing a significant development on Ukraine’s eastern front in recent weeks. This progress is particularly impactful as it unfolds more than three years into Russia’s extensive military campaign against Ukraine. Coinciding with Pasechnik’s statement, the United States announced it would be holding back on delivering certain military aid that had been pledged during Joe Biden’s presidency. The White House explained, “This decision was made to prioritize America’s interests and is part of a comprehensive review of military support to partner nations worldwide.”
Over the weekend of June 7-8, Russian troops reached the border with the Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time in the conflict, even though a third of the Donetsk region remains under Ukrainian control.
These developments might not signify a change in tactics or strategy from Russian forces, but they do highlight the ongoing challenges faced by Ukrainian troops in reclaiming territory. Russia’s Ministry of Defence asserted that its forces had seized control of the villages of Zaporizhzhia, Perebudova, Shevchenko, and Yalta in Donetsk as of June 27 and continued advancing to Chervona Zirka the following day.
The Buffer Zone Strategy
According to Igor Korotchenko, editor of National Defense magazine, “The Russian armed forces are now focused on creating a buffer zone, which should extend at least 70 to 120 kilometers deep into Ukraine.” Such assertions have been echoed by various Russian officials in the past.
During a previous recovery of Kursk, a region counterattacked by Ukraine, battalion deputy commander Oleg Ivanov proposed the necessity of establishing a buffer zone of at least 20 kilometers to ensure the security of the Kursk residents from potential Ukrainian counterattacks.
In a recent move, Russian officials have referred to a desire to create a broad buffer zone, which some analysts argue is merely an excuse for further territorial expansion. Russian President Vladimir Putin, on June 20, reiterated his view that all of Ukraine is part of Russian territory, casting doubt on the Kremlin’s commitment to its stated objectives.
On June 27, Putin gave a vague declaration regarding his military ambitions, stating, “We wish to see the special military operation conclude with the outcome that we desire.”
In late May, Putin had floated the idea of a substantial buffer zone within Ukraine, delegating the specifics to his military commanders. One general suggested that this zone might encompass six territories, gaining backing from members of the Russian Duma.
Simultaneously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the country’s decision to exit the Ottawa Treaty prohibiting antipersonnel landmines, enabling Ukraine to produce and utilize such munitions defensively. “Antipersonnel mines are often indispensable for our defense,” Zelenskyy stated.
Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Efforts
In a display of resilience, Ukraine achieved significant tactical victories using advanced long-range weaponry. On June 27-28, Ukrainian drones targeted the Kirovske airfield, with the Ukrainian State Security Service claiming responsibility for the strike that resulted in the destruction of several Russian helicopters.
Additionally, the General Staff of Ukraine reported successfully neutralizing multiple Sukhoi-34 fighter jets at Marinovka airbase, utilized by Russia to execute aerial assaults on Ukrainian forces. Furthermore, intelligence suggested that a Russian intelligence base in the Bryansk region may have been compromised on June 26.
“Russia is enhancing its drone capabilities and plans to significantly increase drone deployment in strikes against our nation,” Zelenskyy warned on June 30, just after Russia conducted its largest drone attack of the war, unleashing 447 drones and 90 missiles on various Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian air defenses managed to intercept a majority, taking down all but one drone and 38 missiles.
Experts believe the escalation in Russian drone attacks, especially since diplomatic discussions resumed in May, indicates Moscow’s intent to delineate Ukrainian territory for impending ground assaults. “We are not just seeing actions on the front lines; it’s about rear areas and residential zones in Ukraine,” noted Victoria Vdovychenko, an expert from Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics, highlighting the spread of Ukrainian vulnerabilities.
During a recent address, Zelenskyy welcomed German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul’s inaugural visit to Kyiv, emphasizing the significance of military support being pledged by Germany—around nine billion euros ($11 billion) this year towards bolstering Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. He elaborated on his commitment to enhance the production of interceptor missiles, which are crucial in combating incoming threats, stating, “Our manufacturing scale and drone development pace must be synchronized with the ongoing conflict conditions.”
As the situation evolves rapidly, the focus remains on advancing Ukraine’s defensive measures, particularly in strategic domains including drone technology and missile interception.
