MLB Draft Insights: A Look Back at Picks from 2015-2024
By David Schoenfield
ESPN.com MLB Analyst
Published: June 23, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
As the 2025 MLB Draft approaches, set to kick off on July 13, the landscape of baseball remains as challenging as ever. Players face escalating pitcher velocities and increased competition, making the art of scouting and drafting a daunting task. Evaluating an 18-year-old high school athlete as a future major leaguer is perhaps one of baseball’s toughest calls.
How hard is it? An analysis of the last decade’s drafts (2015-2024, excluding the past two years due to early evaluations) reveals this: out of 80 top-10 picks, only 16 made it back into a reimagined top 10. Two drafts saw none of their selections rank in the revised version. This statistic sheds light on why teams like the Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Miami Marlins continue to struggle in the standings—poor draft choices weigh heavily on their performance. The Pirates, however, did redeem themselves somewhat by securing their 2023 top pick successfully.
As we prepare for the upcoming draft, let’s take a retrospective view on the re-ranked top picks from previous selections. This assessment may evolve dramatically in the coming years, especially for the most recent draft classes.
Highlights of Past Drafts
- 2015 Draft: The Arizona Diamondbacks would opt for Alex Bregman, who has seen tremendous success, over Dansby Swanson.
- 2016 Draft: The Philadelphia Phillies would be wise to select Will Smith instead of Mickey Moniak.
- 2017 Draft: Looking back, the Minnesota Twins should swap Royce Lewis for Hunter Greene, highlighting the stakes involved.
- 2018 Draft: The Detroit Tigers would rethink their initial pick and select Tarik Skubal as a standout emerging talent.
- 2022 Draft: Baltimore could select Roman Anthony over Jackson Holliday, who initially held the top spot.
MLB Draft Journey
As teams prepare for the July 13 event in Atlanta, here are a few key takeaways from previous drafts:
- Evaluating Talent: Scouting methods must evolve to navigate changing circumstances, from player injuries to performance fluctuations.
- Draft Classes: Some years have yielded notable talent, while others have showcased an underwhelming return. For instance, early predictions positioned 2017 as a particularly weak draft.
- Future Trajectories: The upcoming draft is looming large as prospects like Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews garner attention, while teams will strategize to secure their future stars.
This meticulous evaluation of past drafts not only serves as a reminder of the unpredictability of player development but also highlights the delicate balance teams must maintain in their scouting and drafting strategies. As we gear up for another selection, the hope is to strike gold, much like the successful classes of the past, while learning from the missteps etched in Major League history.
With the excitement building for the 2025 MLB Draft, the focus will remain on which teams can identify and cultivate the next generation of baseball talent. Stay tuned for updates and rankings as the draft draws near.