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On Friday, Israel initiated air strikes against Iran, prompting Tehran to respond with a significant wave of retaliatory missile attacks aimed at Israel. Some Iranian ballistic missiles successfully breached Israel’s advanced missile defense systems, targeting critical locations within the country.
The ongoing conflict has resulted in over 240 fatalities in Iran, including 70 women and children. In retaliation, Iran launched approximately 400 missiles and numerous drones, leading to at least 24 deaths in Israel and hundreds of injuries, forcing citizens nationwide to seek refuge in bomb shelters.
Several Iranian missiles struck residential zones in central Israel, causing extensive damage. Additionally, Israel’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv, known as the Kirya, sustained strikes, though damage there was reported as minimal.
This past Tuesday, Iranian officials claimed to have successfully targeted a military intelligence center and a Mossad operations hub, which indicates a breach of Israel’s sophisticated missile defense systems—some of the most advanced globally.
In recent conflicts, Israel has effectively intercepted a significant number of incoming aerial threats through its defense systems, notably using the Iron Dome.
Understanding Israel’s Iron Dome
The Iron Dome is central to Israel’s air defense strategy, forming the foundation of a comprehensive multi-layered protection system, described by Alex Gatopoulos, Al Jazeera’s defense editor, as the lowest tier in a sophisticated array of defenses.
This system detects incoming rockets, assesses their trajectories, and intercepts those deemed a threat. Israel claims a 90% success rate for the Iron Dome, which was developed in response to rocket assaults during the 2006 conflict with Hezbollah and became operational in 2011.
Gatopoulos noted that the Iron Dome is primarily designed to tackle low-altitude rocket threats that larger systems may overlook. Beyond the Iron Dome, Israel employs the Barak-8 for medium-range missiles, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system for various ballistic missile types, and David’s Sling for mid to long-range threats.
How Does Israel Defend Against Iranian Missiles?
To counter long-range Iranian missile threats, Israel utilizes the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 interceptors, with the Arrow project being led by Israel Aerospace Industries, in collaboration with Boeing.
The Arrow-2 interceptor is designed to neutralize incoming threats at both high altitudes and within the atmosphere, while Israel also employs aerial defense involving fighter jets and helicopters to target drones approaching its territory.
Mechanics of Air Defense Systems
Israeli air defense systems are composed of three essential elements: radar systems, a command and control center, and launchers equipped with interceptor missiles.
When an enemy missile approaches, it is tracked via radar, alerting the control center to determine the appropriate response. Typically, two interceptors are deployed to neutralize a single incoming threat, as explained by Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at King’s College London.
While all defense systems have a limited supply of interceptors, the precise count used in Israel’s defenses remains undisclosed to the public.
Has Iran Breached Israeli Air Defenses?
An Israeli military official reported on Saturday a success rate of 80-90% for its defense systems, underscoring the fact that no system can achieve complete efficacy—indicating some Iranian missiles have indeed penetrated Israel’s defenses.
How Has Iran Achieved This?
The exact mechanisms behind the successful penetration of Israeli air defenses by Iranian missiles remain unclear, but several strategies may have been employed.
Exhausting Interceptors
One possibility is that Iran managed to overextend Israel’s interceptor capabilities. As Miron pointed out, “No system can intercept 100% of incoming missiles,” meaning a limited supply of interceptors could hinder defense effectiveness.
Hypersonic Missiles
According to Gatopoulos, Iran’s development of hypersonic missiles poses a new challenge to air defenses due to their increased speed, leaving systems less time to respond effectively. Hypersonic missiles, like Iran’s Fattah-2 equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), move unpredictably and can evade conventional intercept strategies.
Cruise Missiles
Additionally, Iran’s arsenal includes cruise missiles like the Hoveyzeh, which can adjust their flight paths and are difficult to intercept despite being slower than ballistic missiles. They operate at low altitudes, allowing them to evade detection.
Other Challenges to Air Defense Systems
Air defense systems can also be overwhelmed through the use of decoys, which are designed to mimic actual threats and exhaust interceptor stocks, enabling genuine missiles or drones to breach defenses undetected.
Furthermore, some modern missiles are equipped with technology that suppresses radar detection, making them challenging to identify and intercept.
Is There a Risk of Running Out of Missiles?
Gatopoulos characterized the current Iran-Israel conflict as “attritional,” with Israel asserting control over Iranian airspace. However, the geographic distance—approximately 1,000 km (620 miles)—between the two nations complicates sustained air operations for Israel, especially without refueling.
He further emphasized the need to consider stockpiles of missiles on both sides, questioning how many Iran has available to sustain its operations while Israeli forces work to neutralize mobile missile launchers.
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